Can You Retire at 40 with $2.5M?

A complete retirement readiness assessment at age 40 with a $2,500,000 portfolio. See your 4% rule income, healthcare bridge costs, and Monte Carlo success probabilities.

4% Rule Monthly Income

$8,333

$100,000/year

Years to Medicare (65)

25 yrs

~$240,000 bridge cost

30-Year Success Rate

91%

Median ending: $4.6M

40-Year Success Rate

84%

Worst case: $0

Portfolio Value Over Time at Different Withdrawal Rates

Safe Withdrawal Rate Analysis

Withdrawal Strategy	Monthly Income	Annual Income	30-Yr Success	40-Yr Success
Conservative (3%)	$6,250	$75,000	98%	95%
Standard (4%)	$8,333	$100,000	92%	83%
Aggressive (5%)	$10,417	$125,000	80%	66%

Monte Carlo Simulation Results

Healthcare Bridge: Age 40 to Medicare at 65

Bridge period

25 years

Est. annual premium

$9,600

Total bridge cost

$240,000

Explore Other Ages

Age 35 Age 36 Age 37 Age 38 Age 39 Age 41

Related Calculators & Articles

Retirement Withdrawal Safety Monte Carlo Simulator FIRE Age Calculator Roth Conversion Ladder

Calculation Assumptions

6% mean annual return with 13% volatility assumption.
3% annual inflation rate.
Monte Carlo simulation uses 6% return and 13% standard deviation (2000 simulations).
Healthcare bridge costs based on estimated ACA marketplace premiums; actual costs vary by state, age, and plan.
Retirement success defined as portfolio balance > $0 at end of horizon.
The 4% rule and safe withdrawal rates are guidelines, not guarantees. Past performance does not predict future results.

Static math ignores market sequence risk and state taxes.

Use Alistair to model dynamic withdrawal scenarios with your real portfolio, tax state, and spending needs.

Try Alistair Free