Can You Retire at 65 with $1.5M?

A complete retirement readiness assessment at age 65 with a $1,500,000 portfolio. See your 4% rule income, healthcare bridge costs, and Monte Carlo success probabilities.

Since you're already eligible for Medicare at 65, healthcare costs shift from ACA premiums to Medicare premiums and supplemental coverage — a significant advantage. With $1,500,000, the 4% rule yields $5,000/month, and your 92% 30-year success rate suggests high confidence. At your age, Social Security claiming strategy becomes a critical variable — delaying benefits to 70 can increase your monthly check by roughly 8% per year and substantially improve long-term portfolio survival.

4% Rule Monthly Income

$5,000

$60,000/year

Years to Medicare (65)

0 yrs

~$0 bridge cost

30-Year Success Rate

92%

Median ending: $2.6M

40-Year Success Rate

85%

Worst case: $0

Portfolio Value Over Time at Different Withdrawal Rates

Safe Withdrawal Rate Analysis

Withdrawal Strategy	Monthly Income	Annual Income	30-Yr Success	40-Yr Success
Conservative (3%)	$3,750	$45,000	98%	95%
Standard (4%)	$5,000	$60,000	92%	84%
Aggressive (5%)	$6,250	$75,000	78%	68%

Monte Carlo Simulation Results

Healthcare Bridge: Age 65 to Medicare at 65

Bridge period

0 years

Est. annual premium

$9,600

Total bridge cost

Calculation Assumptions

6% mean annual return with 13% volatility assumption.
3% annual inflation rate.
Monte Carlo simulation uses 6% return and 13% standard deviation (2000 simulations).
Healthcare bridge costs based on estimated ACA marketplace premiums; actual costs vary by state, age, and plan.
Retirement success defined as portfolio balance > $0 at end of horizon.
The 4% rule and safe withdrawal rates are guidelines, not guarantees. Past performance does not predict future results.

Sources

Static math ignores market sequence risk and state taxes.

Use Alistair to model dynamic withdrawal scenarios with your real portfolio, tax state, and spending needs.

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