The last decade where compounding is the main character. After 50, contributions dominate returns.
At 45, you have roughly 15-20 years to traditional retirement. This is the transition zone — compounding is still powerful, but contributions are becoming the primary growth driver. You should have a clear picture of your retirement number, your timeline, and what 'enough' looks like. If you're on track, keep doing what works. If you're behind, you still have time to course-correct — saving an extra $10K/year for 20 years at 7% adds $410,000.
No more approximations. Calculate your specific retirement number using the 4% rule or a detailed drawdown model. Include Social Security, healthcare costs ($315K for a couple retiring at 65, per Fidelity's 2024 estimate), taxes, and inflation.
With 15-20 years to retirement, decide on your mortgage strategy. If your rate is under 4%, investing the extra typically wins by retirement. If you want to enter retirement debt-free, start accelerating payments now so the mortgage is gone by 60-65.
At 45, you need to save roughly 25-30% of gross income if you're behind the 4x benchmark. Catch-up contributions aren't available until 50, so you need to max out regular contribution limits now.
At 45 with 15-20 years to retirement, a 70-80% stock allocation is still reasonable for most. But if a 20% market drop would cause you to sell, you need more bonds. The behavioral risk is greater than the market risk.
You're close enough that the claiming decisions matter. Run scenarios: claim at 62, FRA (67 for most), or 70. For married couples, the higher earner should typically delay to 70 for the maximum survivor benefit.
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