3-Bucket Retirement Strategy Safe Withdrawal Rate Calculator

Historical performance and safe withdrawal rate analysis for the 3-Bucket Retirement Strategy. See asset allocation, risk metrics, and success rates across different withdrawal strategies and retirement horizons.

Bucket 1 (2 yrs cash), Bucket 2 (5 yrs bonds), Bucket 3 (remainder in stocks). Refill buckets when markets are up. Designed for psychological comfort during market volatility.

Source: Morningstar/Christine Benz

CAGR (Annual Return)
5.8%
Maximum Drawdown
-25.2%

Worst year: -16.9%

Volatility
10.5%

Sharpe: 0.44

Best Year Return
21.5%

Asset Allocation

Historical Performance

MetricValue
CAGR (Annual Return)5.8%
Volatility (Std Dev)10.5%
Maximum Drawdown-25.2%
Sharpe Ratio0.44
Best Year21.5%
Worst Year-16.9%

Safe Withdrawal Rate Success Rates

Withdrawal Rate30-Year Success40-Year Success
Conservative (3%)100%92%
Moderate (3.5%)98%90%
Standard (4%)90%82%
Aggressive (5%)74%66%
100%30-yr success

Conservative (3%)

98%30-yr success

Moderate (3.5%)

90%30-yr success

Standard (4%)

74%30-yr success

Aggressive (5%)

Calculation Assumptions

  • Historical returns based on backtested data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
  • Safe withdrawal rate success rates estimated from historical market data and Monte Carlo simulations.
  • Asset allocation weights are percentages of total portfolio.
  • CAGR, volatility, and drawdown figures are approximate based on historical averages for each asset class.
  • Actual results vary based on rebalancing frequency, fees, taxes, and withdrawal timing.

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