Bogleheads 60/40 Safe Withdrawal Rate Calculator

Historical performance and safe withdrawal rate analysis for the Bogleheads 60/40. See asset allocation, risk metrics, and success rates across different withdrawal strategies and retirement horizons.

The traditional 60% stocks / 40% bonds allocation. A balanced approach suitable for retirees seeking moderate growth with reduced volatility compared to all-equity portfolios.

Source: Vanguard/Bogleheads

CAGR (Annual Return)
6.4%
Maximum Drawdown
-26.6%

Worst year: -17.7%

Volatility
9.8%

Sharpe: 0.52

Best Year Return
22.5%

Asset Allocation

Historical Performance

MetricValue
CAGR (Annual Return)6.4%
Volatility (Std Dev)9.8%
Maximum Drawdown-26.6%
Sharpe Ratio0.52
Best Year22.5%
Worst Year-17.7%

Safe Withdrawal Rate Success Rates

Withdrawal Rate30-Year Success40-Year Success
Conservative (3%)100%92%
Moderate (3.5%)98%90%
Standard (4%)90%82%
Aggressive (5%)74%66%
100%30-yr success

Conservative (3%)

98%30-yr success

Moderate (3.5%)

90%30-yr success

Standard (4%)

74%30-yr success

Aggressive (5%)

Calculation Assumptions

  • Historical returns based on backtested data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
  • Safe withdrawal rate success rates estimated from historical market data and Monte Carlo simulations.
  • Asset allocation weights are percentages of total portfolio.
  • CAGR, volatility, and drawdown figures are approximate based on historical averages for each asset class.
  • Actual results vary based on rebalancing frequency, fees, taxes, and withdrawal timing.

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