Permanent Portfolio Safe Withdrawal Rate Calculator

Historical performance and safe withdrawal rate analysis for the Permanent Portfolio. See asset allocation, risk metrics, and success rates across different withdrawal strategies and retirement horizons.

Harry Browne's Permanent Portfolio: 25% each in Stocks, Long-Term Bonds, Cash/T-Bills, and Gold. Designed to protect wealth through any economic environment with equal weight to prosperity, deflation, recession, and inflation.

Source: Harry Browne

CAGR (Annual Return)
5.3%
Maximum Drawdown
-12.8%

Worst year: -5.2%

Volatility
6.2%

Sharpe: 0.61

Best Year Return
14.8%

Asset Allocation

Historical Performance

MetricValue
CAGR (Annual Return)5.3%
Volatility (Std Dev)6.2%
Maximum Drawdown-12.8%
Sharpe Ratio0.61
Best Year14.8%
Worst Year-5.2%

Safe Withdrawal Rate Success Rates

Withdrawal Rate30-Year Success40-Year Success
Conservative (3%)100%97%
Moderate (3.5%)97%89%
Standard (4%)81%73%
Aggressive (5%)57%49%
100%30-yr success

Conservative (3%)

97%30-yr success

Moderate (3.5%)

81%30-yr success

Standard (4%)

57%30-yr success

Aggressive (5%)

Calculation Assumptions

  • Historical returns based on backtested data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
  • Safe withdrawal rate success rates estimated from historical market data and Monte Carlo simulations.
  • Asset allocation weights are percentages of total portfolio.
  • CAGR, volatility, and drawdown figures are approximate based on historical averages for each asset class.
  • Actual results vary based on rebalancing frequency, fees, taxes, and withdrawal timing.

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