Bernstein No-Brainer Portfolio Safe Withdrawal Rate Calculator

Historical performance and safe withdrawal rate analysis for the Bernstein No-Brainer Portfolio. See asset allocation, risk metrics, and success rates across different withdrawal strategies and retirement horizons.

William Bernstein's simple portfolio: equal parts US Large Cap, US Small Cap, Foreign Stocks, and US Short-Term Bonds. Just 4 funds for complete diversification.

Source: The Intelligent Asset Allocator

CAGR (Annual Return)
7%
Maximum Drawdown
-34.8%

Worst year: -22.3%

Volatility
12.5%

Sharpe: 0.46

Best Year Return
26.8%

Asset Allocation

Historical Performance

MetricValue
CAGR (Annual Return)7%
Volatility (Std Dev)12.5%
Maximum Drawdown-34.8%
Sharpe Ratio0.46
Best Year26.8%
Worst Year-22.3%

Safe Withdrawal Rate Success Rates

Withdrawal Rate30-Year Success40-Year Success
Conservative (3%)100%92%
Moderate (3.5%)98%90%
Standard (4%)90%82%
Aggressive (5%)74%66%
100%30-yr success

Conservative (3%)

98%30-yr success

Moderate (3.5%)

90%30-yr success

Standard (4%)

74%30-yr success

Aggressive (5%)

Calculation Assumptions

  • Historical returns based on backtested data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
  • Safe withdrawal rate success rates estimated from historical market data and Monte Carlo simulations.
  • Asset allocation weights are percentages of total portfolio.
  • CAGR, volatility, and drawdown figures are approximate based on historical averages for each asset class.
  • Actual results vary based on rebalancing frequency, fees, taxes, and withdrawal timing.

Test how your specific portfolio holding mix handles historical market downturns with Alistair.

Ask Alistair to model your exact portfolio allocation against real historical data and sequence-of-returns risk.

Try Alistair Free