Coffeehouse Portfolio Safe Withdrawal Rate Calculator

Historical performance and safe withdrawal rate analysis for the Coffeehouse Portfolio. See asset allocation, risk metrics, and success rates across different withdrawal strategies and retirement horizons.

Bill Schultheis's Coffeehouse: 40% bonds and 60% stocks split equally across 6 equity slices (S&P 500, Large Value, Small Cap, Small Value, REIT, International). A lazy portfolio with value tilt.

Source: The Coffeehouse Investor

CAGR (Annual Return)
6.6%
Maximum Drawdown
-28.5%

Worst year: -18.9%

Volatility
10.3%

Sharpe: 0.5

Best Year Return
23.7%

Asset Allocation

Historical Performance

MetricValue
CAGR (Annual Return)6.6%
Volatility (Std Dev)10.3%
Maximum Drawdown-28.5%
Sharpe Ratio0.5
Best Year23.7%
Worst Year-18.9%

Safe Withdrawal Rate Success Rates

Withdrawal Rate30-Year Success40-Year Success
Conservative (3%)100%92%
Moderate (3.5%)98%90%
Standard (4%)90%82%
Aggressive (5%)74%66%
100%30-yr success

Conservative (3%)

98%30-yr success

Moderate (3.5%)

90%30-yr success

Standard (4%)

74%30-yr success

Aggressive (5%)

Calculation Assumptions

  • Historical returns based on backtested data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
  • Safe withdrawal rate success rates estimated from historical market data and Monte Carlo simulations.
  • Asset allocation weights are percentages of total portfolio.
  • CAGR, volatility, and drawdown figures are approximate based on historical averages for each asset class.
  • Actual results vary based on rebalancing frequency, fees, taxes, and withdrawal timing.

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